Waiting for a Tsunami
Though not in full swing, the rain is springing deadly surprises already. But climate change experts say that is just a foretaste of a greater tragedy hovering around more Nigerian communities and other developing countries of Africa
GBENGA OGUNDARE
There was no gathering cloud to forecast an impending rainfall on Monday, 5 May, 2014 in Ifo, Ogun State. So Abiodun Aregbesola and his teenage Computer Science students at Owode-Ota Grammar School could not have been prepared for the eddies of wind that crept in on them suddenly-lashing out violently and buffeting everything in sight. Soon the roofs of the classrooms caved in and the walls tore off their foundations and came crumbling on them.
That was the last they knew before the entire community fell flat under the gnawing jab of the whirlwind . Both teacher and his students woke up some days later at Hasjok Hospital in Ifo with large-size bandages swathed around their heads. The Computer Science teacher was lucky to cheat death after all, but not without a six-inch nail piercing his skull in the accident.
Never mind the superstitious sentiments of the Owode residents who blamed their woes on a spell that backfired after the rain had been held from falling over time. Kunle Olawoyin and a crowd of other climate change specialists-who have all the while been crying their voice hoax over the looming disaster of sustained environmental degradation and its spin-offs-are not exactly shocked by the tragedy. Nigeria, Olawoyin argued, is among those countries faced with the worst challenging environmental problems.
“We face all the acute environmental problems identified by World Wide Fund for Nature regarding species, forests, marine and fresh water ecosystems, toxics and climate change,’ the Media Advocacy Manager at the Nigeria Conservative Foundation told this magazine.
Olawoyin is spot-on. So Ban Ki-Moon could not agree any less. “Climate change is increasing risks in all cities, where the poorest people are hit the hardest. We are seeing daily disasters at unexpected times and places,’ the UN Secretary-General told a gathering of high-level representatives at the Economic and Social Council [ECOSOC] summit in New York on Tuesday, 27 May, 2014.
That is no false alarm. Already, Nigeria has lost a massive 1650 square kilometers of land to the ravages of desert encroachment in the 19 northern states, a recent study revealed. The worst hit being Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara, all of which are pummeled by the combined invasion of north-eastern trade wind from the Sahara Desert and winds originating from the local environment.
It’s no cheery tidings either. But The Nigeria Conservative Foundation-at the launch of its Living On The Edge [LOTE] initiative recently- would insist the Sahelian communities of Kaska, Kumaganam and Meori in the sand dune – prone area of Yobe State; Adiani, Baturiya and Maikongoli situated within and around the Hadejia- Nguru Wetlands Complex, and Rijiyan Dono in the Sokoto Rima Basin all present a spectrum of a once Northern paradise now lost to the worst effects of climate change.
Not that it is relenting though. There are also grave concerns on the rapid southern spread of the Sahara desert. The Sahara, environmentalists say, has been moving south at a rate of almost a square kilometer a year, chewing off villages and wiping out agricultural lands. Especially in the littoral state of Lagos, where Ocean surges and erosion have become the cancer eating up the lands and its vegetal cover. Now that the heat of global warming swells across the globe-vacillating at between 1.5°C-2°C -Nigeria, the African giant, and the other dwarfs on the continent are confronted with even a greater risk, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts in April.
“If we don’t reduce greenhouse gases soon, risks will get out of hand. And the risks have already risen,’ Maarten van Aalst, a member of the UN panel noted.
The Troubles Ahead
Twenty-first century disasters such as killer heat waves in Europe, wildfires in the United States, droughts in Australia and deadly flooding in Mozambique, Thailand and Pakistan already provide a neon-bright indicators of how vulnerable humanity is to extreme weather conditions.
And the dangers are going to worsen as the climate changes even more, the UN panel warned.
Move over the April 2014 report of the UN, Sen. Grace Bent, erstwhile Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Ecology had warned of a possible natural disaster in Nigeria since 2011. It was only a matter of time, she predicted. The ocean surge in Lagos, Bent surmised then, could just be the forerunner of a tsunami in the alluring commercial nerve-centre of Nigeria.
Sen. Bent must be reading the mind of Yevgeny Dolgmov, geology professor at the Russian University for People’s Friendship. Africa, especially Cameroon, Gabon, and Nigeria Dolgmov said, are now at the peril of a tsunami. Except that some marine geologists in Nigeria still like to think that only the Pacific coasts are cursed with such seismic disasters as earthquakes and volcanoes. “We don’t expect a tsunami in Nigeria,” said Ernest Afiesimama of the Nigeria Institute of Oceanography and Marine Research. He, however, agreed that “the only area where we could probably think of a natural disaster is the western boundary with Cameroon, where there is an active volcano.” There are two of such hotspots in Nigeria, really.
Geologists have discovered that a major crack, the Cameroonian Faultline, streaks across the floor of the Atlantic Ocean, extending from Cameroon, through a number of islands, to the Lake Chad. The other fracture is that of the Ifewara-Zungeru now traced to the nexus of faultlines etched on the bottom of the Atlantic. So the scene may have been set for a tsunami after all— especially with the active volcano that can provide the trigger. Abraham Adekunle Adepetumi, professor of geology at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife, was safe then to have warned that Nigeria is not in the earthquake-proof region.
That fact shouldn’t be hard to swallow seeing relevant data leap out of the country’s archives of subterranean quakes. Between 1933 and 1984 to 2006, Nigeria experienced some kind of tremor nine times, with their magnitude swinging between 4.3 and 4.5 on the seismic scale. That was an indicator bright enough to prompt the Nigeria National Space Research and Development Agency, in 2010, to pinch Nigerians to brace up for an earthquake. And for a tsunami—Chris King, director of earth science education, Keele University, UK, sounded similar alarm during a lecture organised by the Nigeria Geological Survey Agency, Abuja, in March 2011. “There could be a tsunami on one of the islands around the Atlantic, including the Niger Delta,” King said.
The Brutal Indicators
Africa is not exactly strange to tsunami eruption. Somali took the hit in December 2004. Hafun, one of its islands, was over-run by the coastal force, killing about 130 people. What only heightens the palpitations among oceanographers is the speed of coastal erosion in Lagos and the Niger Delta. Professor Larry Awosika, the NIOMR head of geophysics department, reveals, in one of his studies, that the Victoria Island is the fastest eroding beach in Nigeria, losing about 30 metres to the ocean annually. Ugborodo/Escravos loses around 24 metres yearly. And by the end of this century, he says, Lekki and the V.I will have lost 602 and 584 square kilometres respectively. The Niger Delta will be worse: about 15,000 square kilometres will have gone under.
Islands in Lagos are actually around five feet above the sea level. That’s not too auspicious as marine scientists claim the sea level is rising fast along African coasts. It is not even clear if there are monitoring stations to gauge how fast the waters find their level in Nigeria. But the UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanography Commission confirms installations in Takoradi, Ghana; Pemba, Mozambique; Sonara, Cameroon; and the one in South Africa. In any case, Awosika is certain of a 3.68-metre rise by 2100.
Between now and then, ocean surges might not be friendly,Governor Babatunde Fashola confirmed in March 2011. The last surge on the V.I in 2007 is a proof. It rose up to 70 metres high—higher than, say, any five-storey building on the island. Ordinarily, that was enough to sink Ikoyi and the island, and some parts of the Lekki Peninsula lower than five feet above the ocean. He said it was the shoreline protection ridge being constructed by the South Energy Construction Company that caught the waves, thus staving off a disaster then.
And So What?
At the current growth rates, population experts predict that the population of Africa would have doubled in the next 50 to 60 years. About the same time that global warming is expected to ramp up to a scorching 4°C. that should cause some anxiety naturally, especially with its ability to predispose urban centres beyond Nigeria to great risks, including weak infrastructure, to unemployment and pollution.
Therefore the World Bank can only see the worst on the horizon-famine. According to its 2013 Scientific Report on global warming, food security will be the continent’s overarching challenge, with dangers from droughts, flooding, and shifts in rainfall.
“Between 1.5°C-2°C warming, drought and aridity, will contribute to farmers losing 40-80 percent of cropland conducive to growing maize, millet, and sorghum,’ the report said.
Yet, apart from about four geosciences research centres around the nation, there are no clear financial commitments to tackle climate change emergencies. And where the federal government shows a flicker of interest— like floating the Ecological Fund—state governments have come to see it as a windfall, a slush fund for oiling state political machinery. In 2005, former Plateau Governor Joseph Dariye had the gall to tell the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission he squandered N1.8 billion of the fund on the Peoples Democratic Party affairs.
Little wonder then that counter-measures such as the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel initiative have remained a curse than a remedy.
Well, maybe a Tsunami of some policy decision will stave off the looming disaster. Otherwise, both the rich and the poor will go under some day-like Owode-Ifo did last month…